CEEMEA credit week ahead: Heading into the lower liquidity of August, we expect technicals to be supportive for CEEMEA, noting that the primary market has become muchquieter recently (there were no CEEMEA sovereign new deals in July) vs. just short of USD 1bn of coupons and amortisations in August (coupled with still strong inflows); pleasesee CEEMEA credit: Prepare for the August grind tighter, buy TURKEY $ '45s for more details.    Rating reviews on Friday 4August: Angola (Moody’s, B1Neg), Azerbaijan (Fitch, BB+ Neg), Kuwait (S&P, AA), Macedonia (Fitch, BB Neg), Slovakia (Fitch, A+).    Last week’s performance recap: CEEMEA $ sovereigns ended the week 5bp tighter on average with curves seeing small flattening. Generally higher-beta names outperformed,particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (16bp tighter), helped by commodity strength. Outperformers included some of the widest-trading names such as Zambia, Angola and Gabon.The vast majority of names were tighter, but Egypt and Turkey were a little wider on average.    This week, we expect most focus to return to the GCC given an increase in tensions over the weekend; the Saudi-led coalition has reinstated the 13original demands, so we donot envisage an end to the crisis in the near term. With Qatari sovereign bonds almost back to pre-sanction levels (as can be seen on slide 8, the long-end actually now looksexpensive to other credits on a 3m RV basis), we believe volatility is likely to pick up. The downgrades of Bahrain (to B1Neg) and Oman (to Baa2Neg) by Moody’s will also likelyweigh on sentiment, although we note that Oman trades at similar levels to Turkey, thereby already pricing in further downgrades.    In CEE, we took profits on Friday on our switch from POLAND $ ‘24s into REPHUN $ ‘24s, with the spread differential now down to around 28bp (for a four-notch ratingdifference). Whilst there are ongoing tensions between Poland and the EU, at this stage we do not believe it will have a notable impact on the credit profile, so have decided totake advantage of Poland’s recent underperformance to close the trade.

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